The Pick 6- An Archaic Wager

It's known as the ultimate jackpot wager in horse racing. For many years, the pick 6 has been considered the ultimate handicapping test; a wager requiring the bettor to pick six consecutive winners. It's been famed for its blockbuster payouts- which have reached seven figures in the past- and its massive carryover pools: one such carryover at Hollywood in 2007 reached more than $3,000,000. 

Once, its revered status was well founded. Now? Not so much.

The main problem with the pick 6 is its minimum wager- $2. When created, this made sense; after all, the win-place-show minimum is $2. The problem with this is that bettors have to spend ludicrous amounts of money just to have a fighting chance. Using two horses in each race, for example, doesn't sound like much coverage. In the pick 6, however, this ticket costs $128. Using three in each race is a prohibitive $1,458. And even then, in a wide open sequence with big fields, that's not very comforting coverage.

Nowadays, pick 4s and pick 5s with 50 cent minimums are common. The aforementioned two horses in every race combination in a pick 5 costs just $16- certainly enough for a player to have an OK chance without breaking the bank. A $1,000 play in a pick 5 could cover 2,000 different combinations; the same in a pick 6 covers only 500. 

Sure, the opportunity for million dollar payouts isn't really there with 50 cent wagers. I say, who cares? Those big scores were mere pipe dreams for most players- it would often take a combination of big longshots and odds-on favorites going down. With 50 cent bases, bettors can spend less than $100 to have a very good chance of collecting a few hundred dollar payouts.

And bettors have shown their preference for pick 4s and 5, and increasing disdain for pick 6s. Ten years ago at Aqueduct- November 15, 2003- the pick 6 pool was $89,800. On November 9, 2013, the pool was just $48,228. The late pick 4, by contrast, handled $409,677- almost doubled from ten years ago, and with a smaller minimum base (disclaimer: the 2013 pool was seeded with house money). The pick 5 that day handled $218,724 with no seeding- four and a half times the pick 6 pool. 

Bettors have spoken: the pick 6 is no longer what it used to be, and for good reason. With smaller bases, bettors have better chances to make scores without breaking their bankrolls.